The future of theFalloutfranchise is up in the air.Fallout 76attempted to apply the series' single player roleplaying formula to a multiplayer world, but even with several improvements, it’s not what many want of the franchise. Indeed, ever since Bethesda took over the series withFallout 3, fans have been divided about the direction of the series, with differences of opinion on everything from the first-person perspective toFallout 4’s voiced player character.
There are two likely next steps forFallout. Fans will likely either be made to wait up to a decade for Bethesda to finish work onStarfieldandThe Elder Scrolls 6before focusing onFallout 5, or it’s possible the studio will once again outsource to a third-party developer as it did withFallout: New Vegas. Whether or not a third-party title would actually be a direct sequel to the story ofNew Vegasis unknown, but there are advantages and disadvantages of each possible path.
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Fallout 5
While it isn’t known if Bethesda has plans for anotherFalloutgame any time soon, it’s unlikely that the studio would give up one of its most valuable intellectual properties after a few wrong steps. What is known, however, is that Bethesda is currently working on a space-faring sci-fi RPG titledStarfield, which will likely be released some time in the next three years.
It has also been confirmed thatThe Elder Scrolls 6will not release until afterStarfield, which some industry insiders speculating that the next chapter in Bethesda’s flagship fantasy franchise will hit shelves some time around 2026. Unfortunately forFalloutfans, this would mean that ifFallout 5is the next game in the series, they could be look at a wait of almost a decade for its release.
This does have its advantages. If therelease ofCyberpunk 2077taught RPG fans anything, it’s that sometimes it’s better to wait for than to see a game face a rushed release. Bethesda could experiment with new features in a less risky IP likeStarfield. IfStarfieldends up having significantly different features than eitherFalloutorThe Elder Scrolls,The Elder Scrolls 6might then be used to consolidate some of the lessons learned fromStarfield’s experiments into the studio’s trademark open-world first-person RPG format.
Fallout 5would also have the benefit of hindsight, with Bethesda able to look back at another decade of RPG releases to figure out how to makeFallout 5truly feel like a generational step forward. To add to that, Bethesda would likely have had time to experiment with significant upgrades to its engine.Fallout 4may have been prettier thanSkyrim, but it didn’t feel like a technological leap forward.
After the release ofFallout 76, manyFalloutfans simply don’t trust Bethesda less with the IP. Many were also critical ofFallout 4, not because it was a bad game, but because it deprioritized the game’s roleplaying aspects in favor of tighter combat. As a result, it often felt likeFallout 4had far fewer ways of dealing with situations, with players simply expected to shoot and stab their way acrossFallout 4’s Commonwealthin search of their missing son.
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Fallout: New Vegas 2
One of the big downsides for manyFalloutfans hoping thatFallout: New Vegas 2may be around the corner is that it’s extremely unlikely that a sequel would be developed by Obsidian Entertainment. When the originalFallout: New Vegasreleased,Obsidian’s contract with Bethesdastipulated that the studio would not receive a bonus unless the game got an 85 on Metacritic.Fallout: New Vegasreceived critical acclaim and is one of the most beloved games in the series, bringing a unique wild west tone to its apocalyptic America. Nonetheless, it received an 84 on Metacritic, Obsidian missed out on the bonus, and it had to cancel projects as a result.
In recent years, Obsidian has focused on new IPs.The Outer Worlds, a satirical sci-fi set in space, clearly aimed to be a spiritual successor toFalloutin both its tone and its anti-capitalist themes.Avowed, Obsidian’s upcoming first-person fantasy game, also appears to be setting its sights onThe Elder Scrolls' spot in the market asSkyrimfans near a full decade of waiting since the release of the last game.
It is possible, however, thatFallout: New Vegas 2- whether it be a direct sequel or a spiritual successor of some kind - could be given to a third-party developer. This would allowFallout: New Vegas 2to be developed over the next few years while Bethesda works onStarfieldandThe Elder Scrolls 6.New Vegas 2wouldn’t have the same advantages asFallout 5when it comes to new technology and hindsight, but neither didNew Vegas, which used assets fromFallout 3to create a world and story many fans found even more impressive than the third game.
New Vegas 2is, perhaps appropriately, more of a gamble thatFallout 5. Rumors do suggest it to be in the works, though that should be taken with a massive grain of salt. However,New Vegas 2could keep the franchise alive over the next decade, and could allow for necessary new ideas and perspectives which could help get the franchise back on path afterBethesda’s recent mistakes. Which way the series will go remains a mystery. War may never change, but by the end of the decade,Falloutwill likely look very different than it did in the 2010s.
